Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP8428
Authors: Olivier Cadot; Ana Fernandes; Julien Gourdon; Aaditya Mattoo
Abstract: The focus of trade policy has shifted in recent years from economy-wide reductions in tariffs and trade restrictions towards targeted interventions to facilitate trade and promote exports. Most of these latter interventions are based on the new mantra of 'aid-for-trade' rather than on hard evidence on what works and what doesn?t. On the one hand, rigorous impact-evaluation is needed to justify these interventions and to improve their design. On the other hand, rigorous evaluation is feasible because unlike traditional trade policy, these interventions tend to be targeted and so it is possible to construct treatment and control groups. When interventions are not naturally targeted, such as in the case of customs reforms, some techniques, such as randomized control trials, may not be feasible but meaningful evaluation may still be possible. We discuss examples of impact evaluations using a range of methods (experimental, quasi-experimental, or 'natural experiments') highlighting the particular issues and caveats arising in a trade context, and the valuable lessons that are already being learnt. We argue that systematically building impact evaluation into trade projects could lead to better policy design and a more credible case for 'aid-for-trade.'
Keywords: export margins; export promotion; firms; impact evaluation; propensity-score matching; Tunisia
JEL Codes: C23; F13; F14; L15; L25; O17; O24
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| export promotion programs in Latin America (O54) | export expansion along the extensive margin (F29) |
| export promotion programs in Latin America (O54) | increased numbers of products exported (F10) |
| export promotion programs in Latin America (O54) | new markets accessed (D40) |
| export promotion programs in Latin America (O54) | benefiting small and inexperienced firms (L26) |
| Tunisia's export promotion program (F10) | employment growth (O49) |
| customs reforms in the Philippines (H29) | duty collection (H26) |
| customs reforms in the Philippines (H29) | alternative avoidance methods by importers (F18) |