Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP8369
Authors: Carlos Lvareznogal; Leandro Prados de la Escosura
Abstract: Two distinctive regimes are distinguished in Spain over half-a-millennium. A first one (1270s-1590s) corresponds to a high land-labour ratio frontier economy, pastoral, trade-oriented, and led by towns. Wages and food consumption were relatively high. Sustained per capita growth occurred from the Reconquest?s end (1264) to the Black Death (1340s) and resumed from the 1390s only broken by late-15th century turmoil. A second regime (1600s-1810s) corresponds to a more agricultural and densely populated low-wage economy which grew along a lower path. Contrary to preindustrial Western Europe, Spain achieved her highest living standards in the 1340s, not by mid-15th century. Although its population toll was lower, the Plague had a more damaging impact on Spain and, far from releasing non-existent demographic pressure, destroyed the equilibrium between scarce population and abundant resources. Pre-1350 per capita income was reached by the late 16th century but only overcome after 1820.
Keywords: Black Death; Rise; Decline; Frontier Economy; Preindustrial Spain; Reconquest; Western Europe
JEL Codes: E01; N13; O47
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Black Death (N94) | Spain's economic decline post-1600 (N93) |
| Demographic pressures, agricultural productivity, and shifts in trade dynamics (O49) | Spain's economic decline post-1600 (N93) |
| Black Death (N94) | disruption of equilibrium between population and resources (Q32) |
| Economic policies (E64) | Spain's economic decline in the 17th century (N13) |
| Decline in wool exports (F10) | Spain's economic stagnation in the 17th century (N13) |
| Consequences of American silver influx (N11) | Spain's economic stagnation in the 17th century (N13) |
| High land-labor ratio frontier economy (P19) | sustained per capita growth (O44) |
| Transition to low-wage, densely populated agricultural economy (F66) | lower growth path (O40) |