Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP8315
Authors: Matteo Cervellati; Piergiuseppe Fortunato; Uwe Sunde
Abstract: This paper investigates the role of violent civil conflicts during the process of democratization for the quality of emerging democracies, and in particular, the protection of civil (political and economic) liberties. A simple theory in which different groups may engage in violent conflict in order to become the ruler predicts a crucial role of the democratization scenario. A peaceful democratization leads to democracies with a high degree of civil liberties, reflecting a social contract according to which all groups are politically represented and the rulers deliberately abstain from wasteful rent extraction. A transition to democracy under a violent conflict is less likely to lead to a system with a high degree of civil liberties. Empirical evidence from the third wave of democratization based on a difference-in-difference methodology supports the theoretical predictions. The findings suggest that violent conflicts during the democratic transition have persistent negative effects on the quality of the emerging democracies.
Keywords: Civil Conflict; Civil Liberties; Democratization; Violent Democratization
JEL Codes: H10; N10; O20
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| violent transitions (D74) | weaker civil liberties (P14) |
| peaceful transitions (P39) | better civil liberties (K15) |
| democratization (D72) | quality of democracy (D72) |
| transition scenario (P27) | quality of democracy (D72) |
| violent transitions (D74) | marginal improvements in civil liberties (D72) |
| peaceful transitions (P39) | significant improvement in civil liberties (K10) |