Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP8301
Authors: Abdul Abiad; Giovanni Dell'Ariccia; Bin Li
Abstract: Recoveries that occur in the absence of credit growth are often dubbed miracles and named after mythical creatures. Yet these are not rare animals, and are not always miracles. About one out of five recoveries is "creditless," and average growth during these episodes is about a third lower than during "normal" recoveries. Aggregate and sectoral data suggest that impaired financial intermediation is the culprit. Creditless recoveries are more common after banking crises and credit booms. Furthermore, sectors more dependent on external finance grow relatively less and more financially dependent activities (such as investment) are curtailed more during creditless recoveries.
Keywords: credit crunch; credit cycles; financial crises; financial dependence
JEL Codes: E32; E44; G21
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| creditless recoveries (G33) | worse growth performance (O57) |
| banking crises (G01) | creditless recoveries (G33) |
| credit booms (F65) | creditless recoveries (G33) |
| financial intermediation issues (G21) | weaker investment (G31) |
| weaker investment (G31) | lower productivity outcomes (D29) |
| financial dependence (G59) | growth performance during creditless recoveries (O41) |