Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP8249
Authors: Oded Galor
Abstract: This paper develops the theoretical foundations and the testable implications of the various mechanisms that have been proposed as possible triggers for the demographic transition. Moreover, it examines the empirical validity of each of the theories and their significance for the understanding of the transition from stagnation to growth. The analysis suggests that the rise in the demand for human capital in the process of development was the main trigger for the decline in fertility and the transition to modern growth
Keywords: demographic transition; fertility; gender gap; human capital; mortality; unified growth theory
JEL Codes: J1; O10
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| increased demand for human capital (J24) | reduced fertility rates (J13) |
| increased demand for human capital (J24) | enhanced investment in children's education and quality (I21) |
| enhanced investment in children's education and quality (I21) | reduced fertility rates (J13) |
| decline in mortality rates (J11) | increase in fertility rates (J13) |
| rise in women's relative wages (J31) | decline in fertility rates (J13) |
| rise in women's relative wages (J31) | increase in opportunity cost of child-rearing (J13) |
| increase in opportunity cost of child-rearing (J13) | decline in fertility rates (J13) |