Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP8086
Authors: Frederick van der Ploeg; Anthony J. Venables
Abstract: The response of an economy to a windfall of foreign exchange (be it aid or natural resource revenues) is often constrained by absorptive capacity. We provide a micro-founded analysis of absorption constraints, based on the idea that expanding the economy?s capital stock (in aggregate or sectorally) requires non-traded inputs, the supply of which is constrained by the initial capital stock. Given this constraint, the economy will manifest ?Dutch disease? symptoms, although many of them are temporary. On impact there is sharp appreciation of the real exchange rate, which will then depreciate back to its equilibrium level. In contrast to the permanent income hypothesis, real consumption jumps part of the way to its new long-run level, and then continues to rise. Depending on the capital-intensity of the investments needed for the adjustment, the economy may run a current account deficit or surplus in early years
Keywords: absorption constraints; absorptive capacity; aid; dutch disease; natural resources; windfall
JEL Codes: O11; O16; E21; E22; F10; F35; H63; Q33
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| windfall (H27) | real exchange rate (F31) |
| real exchange rate (F31) | real exchange rate (equilibrium) (F31) |
| windfall (H27) | real consumption (D11) |
| capital intensity (E22) | real consumption (D11) |
| windfall (H27) | current account position (F32) |
| non-traded inputs (F16) | capital expansion (E22) |
| windfall (H27) | Dutch disease symptoms (Q33) |