Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP8024
Authors: Andreas Kuhn; Jean-Philippe Wuellrich; Josef Zweimüller
Abstract: We estimate the causal e ffect of early retirement on mortality for blue-collar workers. To overcome the problem of endogenous selection, we exploit an exogenous change in unemployment insurance rules in Austria that allowed workers in eligible regions to withdraw from the workforce up to 3.5 years earlier than those in non-eligible regions. For males, instrumental-variable estimates show a significant 2.4 percentage points (about 13%) increasein the probability of dying before age 67. We do not find any adverse effect early retirement onmortality for females. Death causes indicate a significantly higher incidence of cardiovascular disorders among eligible workers, suggesting that changes in health-related behavior explain increased mortality among male early retirees.
Keywords: early retirement; endogeneity; health behaviour; instrumental variable; mortality; premature death
JEL Codes: I1; J14; J26
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Early retirement (J26) | Increased probability of dying before age 67 (I12) |
| Early retirement (J26) | Changes in health-related behaviors (I12) |
| Changes in health-related behaviors (I12) | Increased probability of dying before age 67 (I12) |
| Early retirement (J26) | Increased mortality from cardiovascular causes (I12) |
| Female blue-collar workers (J79) | No significant causal effect on mortality (I12) |