Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP7891
Authors: Athanasios Orphanides
Abstract: This paper provides a policymaker's perspective on some lessons from the recent financial crisis. It focuses on questions in three areas. First, what lessons can be drawn regarding the institutional framework for monetary policy? Has the experience changed the pre-crisis consensus that monetary policy is best performed by an independent central bank focused on achieving and maintaining price stability? Second, what lessons can be drawn regarding the monetary policy strategy that should be followed by a central bank? How activist should a central bank be in dampening macroeconomic fluctuations? Should the "output gap" serve as an important policy guide? Are there lessons regarding the stability-oriented approach followed by the ECB? How activist should a central bank be in tackling perceived asset price misalignments? Does the ECB's monetary analysis pillar help incorporate the pertinent information in formulating policy? Third, is monetary policy pursuing price stability enough to ensure overall stability in the economy? Or is there room for improvement regarding how central banks can contribute to financial stability? Should the role of monetary policy be seen as completely separate from the broader institutional environment governing financial markets and institutions in our economy? Or would greater central bank involvement in regulation and supervision pertaining to credit and finance allow better management of overall economic stability?
Keywords: activist; stabilisation policy; asset prices; ECB; financial stability; great financial crisis; macroprudential supervision; real-time output gap; robust simple rules; stability-oriented monetary policy
JEL Codes: E50; E52; E58
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Independence of the ECB (E58) | Price Stability (E31) |
| Price Stability (E31) | Effective Monetary Policy Outcomes (E52) |
| Central Bank's Commitment to Price Stability (E52) | Greater Flexibility in Crisis Situations (H12) |
| Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates (E43) | Need for Unconventional Measures (E19) |
| Price Stability is Essential (E31) | Overall Economic Stability (E66) |