Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP7873
Authors: Jan C. van Ours; Martin van Tuijl
Abstract: This paper investigates whether there are country-specific characteristics in goal-scoring in the final stage of important international football matches. We examine goal-scoring from 1960 onwards in full 'A' international matches of six national teams: Belgium, Brazil, England, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. We analyze qualifying matches for the European Championship and World Cup and the matches at the final tournaments of these two events, the Copa America and the Confederations Cup. We find that the national teams of Germany, England and the Netherlands are more likely than the three other national teams to score in the last minute -- including stoppage time. However, for Germans this comes at a cost. Germany is more likely to concede a goal in the dying seconds of a match than other countries. During our period of analysis, the national teams of Brazil and Italy only conceded one goal in the last minute. As to winning penalty shootouts, Germany outperforms the other five countries.
Keywords: football; goalscoring; national team matches
JEL Codes: J44
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Risk-seeking behavior (D81) | Goalscoring behavior (L21) |
| Conservative approach (G31) | Goalscoring behavior (L21) |
| National identity (F52) | Goalscoring behavior (L21) |
| Home advantage (R21) | Goalscoring behavior (L21) |
| Goalscoring in the last minute (Z20) | Probability of winning a match (C78) |
| National identity (F52) | Likelihood of conceding a goal (C73) |