Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP7745
Authors: Graziella Bertocchi; Andrea Guerzoni
Abstract: We explore the determinants of state fragility in sub-Saharan Africa. Controlling for a wide range of economic, demographic, geographic and institutional regressors, we find that institutions, and in particular the civil liberties index and the number of revolutions, are the main determinants of fragility, even taking into account their potential endogeneity. Economic factors such as income growth and investment display a non robust impact after controlling for omitted variables and reverse causality. Colonial variables reflecting the history of the region display a marginal impact on fragility once institutions are accounted for.
Keywords: Africa; Colonial History; Institutions; State Fragility
JEL Codes: H11; N17; O43
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| civil liberties (K38) | probability of being classified as fragile (D91) |
| number of revolutions (C69) | probability of being classified as fragile (D91) |
| per capita GDP growth (O49) | fragility (F12) |
| investment (G31) | fragility (F12) |
| colonial history (N40) | fragility (F12) |
| British colonization (F54) | fragility (F12) |
| French colonial legacy (F54) | fragility (F12) |
| Portuguese colonial legacy (F54) | fragility (F12) |