Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP7673
Authors: Domenico Giannone; Jrme Henry; Magdalena Lalik; Michele Modugno
Abstract: This paper describes how we constructed a real-time database for the euro area covering more than 200 series regularly published in the European Central Bank Monthly Bulletin, as made available ahead of publication to the Governing Council members before their first meeting of the month. We describe the database in details and study the properties of the euro area real-time data flow and data revisions, also providing comparisons with the United States and Japan. We finally illustrate how such revisions can contribute to the uncertainty surrounding key macroeconomic ratios and the NAIRU.
Keywords: database; euro area; realtime; revisions
JEL Codes: C01; C82; E24; E58
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| data revisions (Y10) | evaluation of macroeconomic situation (E66) |
| data revisions (Y10) | GDP composition and industrial production indices (E20) |
| data revisions (Y10) | unemployment rate and saving ratios (E24) |
| data revisions (Y10) | NAIRU estimates (J69) |
| data revisions (Y10) | interpretation of economic indicators (F44) |
| data revisions (Y10) | policy implications (D78) |