Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP7630
Authors: Jingwen Fan; Patrick Minford
Abstract: We investigate whether the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level can deliver a reasonable explanation for UK inflation in the 1970s, a period in which the government greatly increased public spending without raising taxes and monetary policy was accommodative. The model is tested for its implied cointegration between inflation and government spending and for its dynamics by using the method of indirect inference, under which the model?s simulated behaviour is compared with the inflation time-series process. We find that the model is accepted in both respects.
Keywords: bootstrap; simulation; fiscal theory of the price level; indirect inference; UK inflation; Wald statistic
JEL Codes: E31; E37; E62; E65
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Government spending (H59) | Inflation (E31) |
| Increase in government spending without corresponding tax increases (H69) | Inflationary pressures (E31) |
| Fiscal solvency requirement (G28) | Inflation (E31) |
| Government's intertemporal budget constraint (H60) | Inflation (E31) |
| Government spending (H59) | Price level (under FTPL) (P22) |