Excess Leverage and Productivity Growth in Emerging Economies: Is There a Threshold Effect?

Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP7617

Authors: Fabrizio Coricelli; Nigel Driffield; Sarmistha Pal; Isabelle Roland

Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between leverage and growth, focusing on a large sample of firms in emerging economies of central and eastern Europe (CEE). Contrary to the general wisdom, we find that deviation from optimal leverage, especially excess leverage, is common among firms in many CEE countries. Using firm-level panel data, the paper provides support to the hypothesis that leverage positively affects productivity growth but only below an endogenously determined threshold level.

Keywords: excess leverage; TFP growth; threshold model

JEL Codes: G32; O16


Causal Claims Network Graph

Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.


Causal Claims

CauseEffect
leverage (G24)TFP growth (O49)
moderate levels of leverage (G32)TFP growth (O49)
excessive leverage (G32)TFP growth (O49)
leverage (up to 40%) (G32)TFP growth (O49)
leverage (beyond 40%) (G32)TFP growth (O49)

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