Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP7589
Authors: Eric D. Gould; Esteban F. Klor
Abstract: This paper examines whether terrorism is an effective tool to achieve political goals. By exploiting variation in terror attacks over time and across locations in Israel from 1988 to 2006, we show that local terror attacks cause Israelis to be: (i) more willing to grant territorial concessions to the Palestinians; (ii) more willing to accept a Palestinian state; (iii) and less likely to identify oneself as being right-wing. These effects are especially pronounced within demographic groups that are traditionally right-wing in their political views. However, terror attacks beyond a certain threshold are less effective, and may reach levels which cause Israelis to adopt a less-accommodating position. In addition, we show that terror induces Israelis to vote increasingly for right-wing parties, as the right-wing parties move to the left in response to terror. Hence, terrorism appears to be an effective strategy in terms of shifting the entire Israeli political landscape to the left. These findings may shed light on the causes underlying the spread of global terrorism in the last few decades.
Keywords: Political views; Terrorism
JEL Codes: D72; D74
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| local terror attacks (Y50) | increased willingness among Israelis to grant territorial concessions to the Palestinians (F51) |
| local terror attacks (Y50) | greater acceptance of a Palestinian state (F55) |
| local terror attacks (Y50) | decrease in self-identification as rightwing (P39) |
| moderate levels of terror (H84) | increased willingness to accommodate Palestinian demands (F51) |
| excessive terror (H84) | hardening of Israeli political stances (F52) |
| terror induces a leftward shift in political opinions (D79) | support for rightwing parties at high terror levels (F52) |
| terror fatalities (F38) | willingness to grant concessions (D74) |