How to Measure the Deterrence Effects of Merger Policy: Frequency or Composition?

Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP7454

Authors: Pedro Luis Pita Barros; Joseph A. Clougherty; Jo Seldeslachts

Abstract: We show that the number of merger proposals (frequency-based deterrence) is a more appropriate indicator of underlying changes in merger policy than the relative anti-competitiveness of merger proposals (composition-based deterrence). This has strong implications for the empirical analysis of the deterrence effects of merger policy enforcement, and potential implications regarding how to reduce anti-competitive merger proposals.

Keywords: Antitrust; Deterrence; Merger Policy

JEL Codes: K21; L40; L49


Causal Claims Network Graph

Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.


Causal Claims

CauseEffect
Frequency-based deterrence (number of merger notifications) (L42)likelihood of proposals being made (D72)
A decrease in antitrust scrutiny (L49)frequency of merger proposals (G34)
Increased scrutiny (G18)fewer anticompetitive proposals (L49)
Frequency-based deterrence (number of merger notifications) (L42)reduced anticompetitive proposals (L49)

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