Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP7392
Authors: Nicolae Bogdan Garleanu; Lasse Heje Pedersen
Abstract: This paper derives in closed form the optimal dynamic portfolio policy when trading is costly and security returns are predictable by signals with different mean-reversion speeds. The optimal updated portfolio is a linear combination of the existing portfolio, the optimal portfolio absent trading costs, and the optimal portfolio based on future expected returns and transaction costs. Predictors with slower mean reversion (alpha decay) get more weight since they lead to a favorable positioning both now and in the future. We implement the optimal policy for commodity futures and show that the resulting portfolio has superior returns net of trading costs relative to more naive benchmarks. Finally, we derive natural equilibrium implications, including that demand shocks with faster mean reversion command a higher return premium.
Keywords: dynamic trading; portfolio choice; predictability; transaction costs
JEL Codes: G11; G12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| trading costs (F12) | optimal portfolio adjustments (G11) |
| trading costs (F12) | conservative approach towards target portfolios (G11) |
| speed of mean reversion (C22) | return premium (G22) |