Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP7226
Authors: Nauro F. Campos; Martin Gassebner
Abstract: What are the main causes of international terrorism? The lessons from the surge of academic research that followed 9/11 remain elusive. The careful investigation of the relative roles of economic and political conditions did little to change the fact that existing econometric estimates diverge in size, sign and significance. In this paper we present a new rationale (the escalation effect) stressing domestic political instability as the main reason for international terrorism. Econometric evidence from a panel of more than 130 countries (yearly from 1968 to 2003) shows this to be a much more promising avenue for future research than the available alternatives.
Keywords: escalation; international terrorism; political instability; terrorism
JEL Codes: C25; D72; F59; H56; P48
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Domestic political instability (O17) | International terrorism (F51) |
| Civil wars (D74) | International terrorism (F51) |
| Civil wars (D74) | Fatalities from terror attacks (H84) |
| Guerrilla warfare (D74) | International terrorism (F51) |
| Domestic political instability (O17) | Skills necessary for terrorism (H56) |
| Skills necessary for terrorism (H56) | International terrorism (F51) |