Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP7200
Authors: Martin Kahanec; Klaus F. Zimmermann
Abstract: The 2004 and 2007 enlargements of the European Union were unprecedented in a number of economic and policy aspects. This essay provides a broad and in-depth account of the effects of the post-enlargement migration flows on the receiving as well as sending countries in three broader areas: labour markets, welfare systems, and growth and competitiveness. Our analysis of the available literature and empirical evidence shows that (i) EU enlargement had a significant impact on migration flows from new to old member states, (ii) restrictions applied in some of the countries did not stop migrants from coming but changed the composition of the immigrants, (iii) any negative effects in the labour market on wages or employment are hard to detect, (iv) post-enlargement migration contributes to growth prospects of the EU, (v) these immigrants are strongly attached to the labour market, and (vi) they are quite unlikely to be among welfare recipients. These findings point out the difficulties that restrictions on the free movement of workers bring about.
Keywords: EU; Eastern Enlargement; Free Movement of Workers; Migration; Migration Effects
JEL Codes: F22; J16; J61
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| EU enlargement (F36) | migration flows from new to old member states (F22) |
| migration flows from new to old member states (F22) | changes in the composition of immigrants (J69) |
| migration (F22) | negative effects on wages or employment in the labor market (F66) |
| post-enlargement migration (F22) | growth prospects of the EU (O52) |
| migrants (F22) | likelihood of being welfare recipients (I38) |