Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP7081
Authors: Antonio Ciccone
Abstract: I examine whether civil conflict is triggered by transitory negative economic shocks. My approach follows Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) in using rainfall as an exogenous source of economic shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries. The main difference is that my empirical specifications take into account that rainfall shocks are transitory. Failure to do so may lead to the conclusion that civil conflict is more likely to break out following droughts when the opposite is true.
Keywords: Mean Reversion; Rainfall; Transitory Shocks
JEL Codes: O0; P0; Q0
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| rainfall growth (Q54) | civil conflict incidence (D74) |
| positive rainfall growth (Q54) | civil conflict likelihood (D74) |
| negative rainfall shocks (Q54) | civil conflict onset (D74) |
| negative rainfall growth (Q54) | civil conflict likelihood (D74) |