Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP7057
Authors: Quamrul Ashraf; Oded Galor
Abstract: This paper empirically tests the predictions of the Malthusian theory with respect to both population dynamics and income per capita stagnation in the pre-Industrial Revolution era. The theory suggests that improvements in technology during this period generated only temporary gains in income per capita, eventually leading to a larger but not richer population. Using exogenous cross-country variations in land productivity and the timing of the Neolithic Revolution, the analysis demonstrates that, in accordance with the Malthusian theory, societies that were characterized by higher land productivity and an earlier onset of agriculture had higher population densities, but similar standards of living, during the time period 1-1500 CE.
Keywords: land; malthusian; stagnation; population dynamics; technological progress
JEL Codes: N10; N30; N50; O10; O40; O50
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Higher land productivity (Q15) | Higher population density (R23) |
| Higher land productivity (Q15) | Income per capita (D31) |
| Earlier agricultural transitions (P32) | Higher population density (R23) |
| Earlier agricultural transitions (P32) | Income per capita (D31) |
| Initial population density (J11) | Subsequent population growth rates (J11) |