Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP7031
Authors: Thorvaldur Gylfason
Abstract: This paper describes some of the ways in which mineral rents and their management influence economic growth and other determinants of growth as well as some of the reasons why many mineral-rich countries have not managed very well to divert their resource rents to furthering economic and social development ? that is, why natural capital tends to crowd out human, social, financial and real capital. The empirical evidence of these linkages is presented in two rounds. First, we allow World Bank data covering 164 countries in 1960-2000 to speak for themselves through a sequence of bilateral correlations that suggest an inverse relationship between natural resource dependence and growth via human capital. We then repeat the exercise for two aspects of social capital, corruption and democracy, suggesting an additional adverse effect of natural resource dependence via social capital on growth. In the second round, we test for the robustness of natural resource dependence as a determinant of long-run growth by estimating a series of growth regressions for the same 164 countries.
Keywords: economic growth; natural resources; social policy
JEL Codes: O11
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Natural resource dependence (Q37) | Economic growth (O49) |
| Natural resource dependence (Q37) | Economic growth (O00) |
| Natural resource dependence (Q37) | Social capital (Z13) |
| Social capital (Z13) | Economic growth (O49) |
| Natural resource dependence (Q37) | Corruption (D73) |
| Corruption (D73) | Economic growth (O49) |
| Natural resource dependence (Q37) | Democracy (D72) |
| Democracy (D72) | Economic growth (O49) |