Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP7024
Authors: Torsten Persson; David von Below
Abstract: The paper illustrates how one may assess our comprehensive uncertainty about the various relations in the entire chain from human activity to climate change. Using a modified version of the RICE model of the global economy and climate, we perform Monte Carlo simulations, where full sets of parameters in the model's most important equations are drawn randomly from pre-specified distributions, and present results in the forms of fan charts and histograms. Our results suggest that under a Business-As-Usual scenario, the median increase of global mean temperature in 2105 relative to 1900 will be around 4.5 °C. The 99 percent confidence interval ranges from 3.0 °C to 6.9 °C. Uncertainty about socio-economic drivers of climate change lie behind a non-trivial part of this uncertainty about global warming.
Keywords: Climate-Economy Models; Global Warming; Monte Carlo Study
JEL Codes: E17; O13; Q54
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| climate sensitivity (Q54) | global warming outcomes (Q54) |
| socioeconomic developments (O17) | uncertainty about future global temperatures (D89) |
| population growth (J11) | uncertainty about future global temperatures (D89) |
| technology improvements (O39) | uncertainty about future global temperatures (D89) |
| economic growth (O49) | climate change (Q54) |
| socioeconomic drivers (R23) | uncertainty surrounding climate change projections (D89) |