Free Flows, Limited Diversification: Explaining the Fall and Rise of Stock Market Correlations, 1890-2001

Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP7013

Authors: Dennis Quinn; Hans-Joachim Voth

Abstract: Using a new dataset on capital account openness, we investigate why equity return correlations changed over the last century. Based on a new, long-run dataset on capital account regulations in a group of 16 countries over the period 1890-2001, we show that correlations increase as financial markets are liberalized. These findings are robust to controlling for both the Forbes-Rigobon bias and global averages in equity return correlations. We test the robustness of our conclusions, and show that greater synchronization of fundamentals is not the main cause of increasing correlations. These results imply that the home bias puzzle may be smaller than traditionally claimed.

Keywords: diversification; equity return correlations; home bias

JEL Codes: F21; G15; G18; N20; P16


Causal Claims Network Graph

Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.


Causal Claims

CauseEffect
capital account openness (F30)equity return correlations (G12)
capital account openness (F30)stock market correlations (G10)
regulatory changes (G18)equity return correlations (G12)
capital account openness (F30)changes in equity market correlations (C10)
home bias puzzle (F12)international diversification (F29)

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