Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP6980
Authors: Simeon Djankov; Marta Reynal-Querol
Abstract: A popular "stylized fact" is that poverty is a main determinant of civil war: several scholars have interpreted the correlation between the two as evidence supporting this claim. In this paper, we find that the relationship between poverty and civil war is spurious, and is accounted for by historical phenomena that jointly determine income evolution and conflict. In particular, the statistical association between poverty, as proxied by income per capita, and civil wars disappears once we include country fixed effects. Also, using cross-section data for 1960-2005, we find that once historical variables like European settler mortality rates and the population density in 1500 are included in civil war regressions, poverty does not have an effect on civil wars. These results are confirmed using longer time series from 1825 to 2000.
Keywords: civil war; income
JEL Codes: O11
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Income per capita (D31) | Civil war incidence (D74) |
| Historical variables (European settler mortality rates, population density in 1500) (N33) | Civil war incidence (D74) |
| Poverty (as measured by income per capita) (I32) | Civil war incidence (D74) |