Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP6825
Authors: Vincenzo Galasso; Roberta Gatti; Paola Profeta
Abstract: In the last century most countries have experienced both an increase in pension spending and a decline in fertility. We argue that the interplay of pension generosity and development of capital markets is crucial to understand fertility decisions. Since children have traditionally represented for parents a form of retirement saving, particularly in economies with limited or non-existent capital markets, an exogenous increase of pension spending provides a saving technology alternative to children, thus relaxing financial (saving) constraints and reducing fertility. We build a simple two-period OLG model to show that an increase in pensions is associated with a larger decrease in fertility in countries in which individuals have less access to financial markets. Cross-country regression analysis supports our result: an interaction between various measures of pension generosity and a proxy for the development of financial markets consistently enters the regressions positively and significantly, suggesting that in economies with limited financial markets, children represent a (if not the only) way for parents to save for old age, and that increases in pensions amount effectively to relaxing these constraints.
Keywords: Fertility; Financial Markets; Intergenerational Transfers; Pay-As-You-Go Pension Systems
JEL Codes: H55; J13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Pension generosity (H55) | Reliance on children for financial support in old age (J13) |
| Reliance on children for financial support in old age (J13) | Fertility rates (J13) |
| Increase in pension spending (H55) | Decrease in fertility rates (J13) |
| Increase in pension spending + Financial market development (H55) | Decrease in fertility rates (J13) |
| Pension spending + Financial market development (H55) | Fertility rates (J13) |