Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP6816
Authors: Karin Monstad; Carol Propper; Kjell G. Salvanes
Abstract: In many developed countries a decline in fertility has occurred. This development has been attributed to greater education of women. However, establishing a causal link is difficult as both fertility and education have changed secularly. The contribution of this paper is to study the connection between fertility and education over a woman?s fertile period focusing on whether the relationship is causal. We study fertility in Norway and use an educational reform as an instrument to correct for selection into education. Our results indicate that increasing education leads to postponement of first births away from teenage motherhood towards having the first birth in their twenties and, for a smaller group, up to the age of 35-40. We do not find, however, evidence that total fertility falls as a result of greater education.
Keywords: Causal Effect; Education; Female Fertility
JEL Codes: I20; J13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Increasing education (I24) | Postponement of first births (J13) |
| Increasing education (I24) | Probability of teenage birth (J13) |
| Postponement of first births (J13) | Timing of first births (J13) |
| Increasing education (I24) | Total completed fertility (J13) |
| Increasing education (I24) | Probability of remaining childless (J19) |