Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP6810
Authors: Michael Krause; J. David López-Salido; Thomas Lubik
Abstract: The New Keynesian Phillips curve explains inflation dynamics as being driven by current and expected future real marginal costs. In competitive labour markets, the labour share can serve as a proxy for the latter. In this paper, we study the role of real marginal cost components implied by search frictions in the labour market. We construct a measure of real marginal costs by using newly available labour market data on worker finding rates. Over the business cycle, the measure is highly correlated with the labour share. Estimates of the Phillips curve using GMM reveal that the marginal cost measure remains significant, and that inflation dynamics are mainly driven by the forward-looking component. Bayesian estimation of the full New Keynesian model with search frictions helps us disentangle which shocks are driving the economy to generate the observed unit labour cost dynamics. We find that mark-up shocks are the dominant force in labour market fluctuations.
Keywords: Bayesian estimation; Labour market frictions; Marginal costs; Phillips curve
JEL Codes: E24; E32; J64
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| real marginal costs (D40) | inflation dynamics (E31) |
| search frictions in the labor market (J69) | real marginal costs (D40) |
| markup shocks (D43) | labor market fluctuations (J49) |
| search frictions (F12) | backward-looking price setting (L11) |
| search frictions (F12) | cyclical behavior of marginal costs (E32) |
| various shocks (E32) | inflation dynamics (E31) |