Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP6809
Authors: Mikhail Chernov; Philippe Mueller
Abstract: We use evidence from the term structure of inflation expectations implicit in the nominal yields and survey forecasts of inflation to address the question of whether or not monetary policy is effective. We construct a model that accommodates forecasts over multiple horizons from multiple surveys and Treasury yields by allowing for differences between risk-neutral, subjective, and objective probability measures. We extract private sector expectations of inflation from this model and establish that they are driven by inflation, real activity and one latent factor, which is correlated with survey forecasts. We show that the interest rate responds to this "survey" factor. The inflation premium and out-of-sample estimates of the inflation long-run mean and persistence suggest that monetary policy became effective over time. As an implication, our model outperforms a standard macro-finance model in inflation and yield forecasting.
Keywords: inflation; macrofinance; term structure; model; monetary policy; survey forecasts
JEL Codes: C50; E52; G12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| inflation (E31) | private sector inflation expectations (E31) |
| real activity (E23) | private sector inflation expectations (E31) |
| latent factor correlated with survey forecasts (C53) | private sector inflation expectations (E31) |
| survey factor (C83) | interest rate (E43) |
| effective monetary policy (E52) | stabilized inflation expectations (E31) |