Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP6798
Authors: Thierry Mayer
Abstract: This paper provides evidence on the long-term impact of market potential on economic development. It derives from the New Economic Geography literature a structural estimation where the level of factors' income of a country is related to its export capacity, labelled Market Access (MA) by Redding and Venables (2004), or Real Market Potential (RMP) by Head and Mayer (2004). The empirical part evaluates this market potential for all countries in the world with available trade data over the 1960-2003 period and relates it to income per capita. Overall results show that market potential is a powerful driver of increases in income per capita.
Keywords: Development; Gravity; International Trade; Market Potential
JEL Codes: F15; O11
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| confounding factors (e.g., education levels) (I24) | income outcomes (E25) |
| market potential (RMP) (R20) | income per capita (D31) |
| increase in market potential (D40) | increase in income per capita (O49) |
| market potential (RMP) (R20) | average wages (J31) |
| market potential (RMP) (R20) | economic development (O29) |
| market potential (RMP) (R20) | income levels (J31) |
| market potential (RMP) (R20) | income outcomes (E25) |