Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP6793
Authors: David A. Jaeger; Esteban F. Klor; Sami Miaari; Marco Daniele Paserman
Abstract: This paper examines how violence in the Second Intifada influences Palestinian public opinion. Using micro data from a series of opinion polls linked to data on fatalities, we find that Israeli violence against Palestinians leads them to support more radical factions and more radical attitudes towards the conflict. This effect is temporary, however, and vanishes completely within 90 days. We also find some evidence that Palestinian fatalities lead to the polarization of the population and to increased disaffection and a lack of support for any faction. Geographically proximate Palestinian fatalities have a larger effect than those that are distant, while Palestinian fatalities in targeted killings have a smaller effect relative to other fatalities. Although overall Israeli fatalities do not seem to affect Palestinian public opinion, when we divide those fatalities by the different factions claiming responsibility for them, we find some evidence that increased Israeli fatalities are effective in increasing support for the faction that claimed them.
Keywords: Israeli fatalities; Israeli-Palestinian conflict; Palestinian fatalities; Palestinian public opinion
JEL Codes: D72; D74; H56
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Israeli violence against Palestinians (D74) | increased support for more radical factions among the Palestinian population (O17) |
| 10 additional Palestinian fatalities (Y50) | reduced support for Fatah (F35) |
| 10 additional Palestinian fatalities (Y50) | reduced support for peace negotiations (F51) |
| Palestinian fatalities (F51) | polarization within the population (D72) |
| polarization within the population (D72) | shift away from moderate positions (P39) |
| increased Israeli fatalities claimed by Hamas (F51) | rise in support for Hamas (H84) |
| increased Israeli fatalities claimed by Hamas (F51) | decrease in support for the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) (F59) |