Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP678
Authors: L. Alan Winters
Abstract: This paper reviews estimates of the effects of `1992' on international trade and welfare, and the policy implications of those estimates. It surveys earlier research starting with the Cecchini Report of 1988 and then summarizes some new results based on general equilibrium modelling with imperfectly competitive industries. These suggest significant gains to integration. Other work surveyed suggests that in some industries, however, integration could be harmful, that taxing EC industry might be beneficial and that current estimates of `1992' might be based on seriously overestimated price elasticities.
Keywords: integration; EC; 1992; single market
JEL Codes: F12; F13; F14; F15; F17
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Completion of the European internal market (1992) (F15) | Increased international trade (F19) |
| Completion of the European internal market (1992) (F15) | Welfare gains (D69) |
| Increased intra-EC trade (F15) | Welfare gains (D69) |
| Removal of trade barriers within the EC (F15) | Increased intra-EC trade (F15) |
| Increased competition (L13) | Welfare gains (D69) |
| Increased competition (L13) | Reduced welfare in EFTA (I38) |
| Trade barrier removal (F13) | Reduced imports from non-EC countries (F14) |
| Estimates of price elasticities of demand for imports (F14) | Actual impacts of trade barrier removal (F69) |