Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP6739
Authors: Alejandro Justiniano; Giorgio E. Primiceri; Andrea Tambalotti
Abstract: Shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment are the most important drivers of business cycle fluctuations in US output and hours. Moreover, these disturbances drive prices higher in expansions, like a textbook demand shock. We reach these conclusions by estimating a DSGE model with several shocks and frictions. We also find that neutral technology shocks are not negligible, but their share in the variance of output is only around 25 percent, and even lower for hours. Labour supply shocks explain a large fraction of the variation of hours at very low frequencies, but not over the business cycle. Finally, we show that imperfect competition and, to a lesser extent, technological frictions are the key to the transmission of investment shocks in the model.
Keywords: Bayesian; DSGE model; Endogenous markups; Imperfect competition
JEL Codes: C11; E30
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Investment shocks (E22) | Output (Y10) |
| Investment shocks (E22) | Hours worked (J22) |
| Investment shocks (E22) | Consumption (E21) |
| Investment shocks (E22) | Productivity (O49) |
| Neutral technology shocks (E39) | Output (Y10) |
| Neutral technology shocks (E39) | Consumption (E21) |
| Labor supply shocks (J20) | Hours worked (J22) |