Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP6707
Authors: Anindya Banerjee; Massimiliano Marcellino
Abstract: This paper brings together several important strands of the econometrics literature: error-correction, cointegration and dynamic factor models. It introduces the Factor-augmented Error Correction Model (FECM), where the factors estimated from a large set of variables in levels are jointly modelled with a few key economic variables of interest. With respect to the standard ECM, the FECM protects, at least in part, from omitted variable bias and the dependence of cointegration analysis on the specific limited set of variables under analysis. It may also be in some cases a refinement of the standard Dynamic Factor Model (DFM), since it allows us to include the error correction terms into the equations, and by allowing for cointegration prevent the errors from being non-invertible moving average processes. In addition, the FECM is a natural generalization of factor augmented VARs (FAVAR) considered by Bernanke, Boivin and Eliasz (2005) inter alia, which are specified in first differences and are therefore misspecified in the presence of cointegration. The FECM has a vast range of applicability. A set of Monte Carlo experiments and two detailed empirical examples highlight its merits in finite samples relative to standard ECM and FAVAR models. The analysis is conducted primarily within an in-sample framework, although the out-of-sample implications are also explored.
Keywords: Cointegration; Dynamic Factor Models; Error Correction Models; Factor-Augmented Error Correction Models; FAVAR; VAR
JEL Codes: C32; E17
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| FECM (F53) | mitigates omitted variable bias (C20) |
| FECM (F53) | more accurate representation of long-run dynamics (C22) |
| FECM (F53) | more accurate representation of short-run dynamics (E19) |
| FECM (F53) | improved fit and forecasting accuracy (C53) |
| FECM (F53) | integrates factors estimated from large dataset (C51) |