The High Unemployment Trap

Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP670

Authors: Gilles Saint-Paul

Abstract: A model of the labour market under firing restrictions and endogenous quits is constructed. It is shown that in the spirit of Blanchard and Summers (1988), the model can generate multiple equilibria, with a low-quits/high-unemployment equilibrium coexisting with a high-quits/low-unemployment equilibrium. Under weak conditions, low-unemployment equilibria Pareto dominate high-unemployment equilibria. Mobility premia improve aggregate welfare but may increase unemployment.

Keywords: unemployment; labour mobility; labour market flexibility

JEL Codes: 021; E23; E24; J22; J23; J63; J64


Causal Claims Network Graph

Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.


Causal Claims

CauseEffect
high firing costs (L97)reliance on voluntary quits (J63)
reliance on voluntary quits (J63)labor demand (J23)
high firing costs (L97)labor demand (J23)
labor demand (J23)equilibrium level of unemployment (J64)
quits (J63)equilibrium level of unemployment (J64)
depressed labor market (J29)firm value (G32)
depressed labor market (J29)labor demand (J23)
policy measures (mobility premia) (J68)transitions to higher employment equilibria (J62)

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