Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP6653
Authors: Alice Mesnard; Paul Seabright
Abstract: This paper explores implications of the fact that individuals know more than the authorities about their risk of infection and can take migration decisions before their health status is publicly observable. In a 2-period model we study under which conditions the presence of quarantine measures may lead to inefficient outcomes as individuals' interest in migration to escape centres of disease may become stronger and generate negative externalities imposed on other uninfected individuals.
Keywords: epidemic diseases; migration; public policy; quarantine
JEL Codes: I18; O15; O19; R23
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Migration decisions influenced by quarantine measures (F22) | Increased risk of disease exposure among uninfected individuals (I12) |
| Quarantine policies (Z38) | Lower migration (F22) |
| Quarantine policies (Z38) | Increase migration among those not currently quarantined (J61) |
| Overly restrictive quarantine policies (R28) | Increase overall disease prevalence (I12) |
| Timing of information asymmetry relative to disease propagation speed (D82) | Effectiveness of quarantine measures (C22) |