Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP6651
Authors: Alice Mesnard; Paul Seabright
Abstract: This paper models how migration both influences and responds to differences in disease prevalence between cities, regions and countries, and show how the possibility of migration away from high-prevalence areas affects long-run steady state disease prevalence. We develop a dynamic framework where both migration and prevention behaviour respond to the prevalence of disease, to the costs of migration and of treatment, and to current and anticipated health regulations. The model treats disease prevalence as an endogenous consequence of other features of the areas concerned, notably their economic endowments. It explores how pressure for migration in response to differing equilibrium levels of disease prevalence causes countervailing differences in city characteristics, notably in land rents. Competition for scarce housing in low-prevalence areas can create pressures for segregation, with disease concentrated in high-prevalence "sinks". We show that multiple steady states may exist and explore their comparative static properties. In particular we find that migration can have positive health benefits, in that reductions in barriers to migration can reduce steady-state disease incidence in low-prevalence areas while having no impact on prevalence in high-prevalence areas. This may have important consequences for policy; in some circumstances, public health measures may need to avoid discouraging migration away from high-disease areas.
Keywords: Development; Infectious Diseases; Migration; Public Health; Quarantine
JEL Codes: I18; O15; O19; R23
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| migration (F22) | disease prevalence (I12) |
| high prevalence areas (I32) | migration to low-prevalence areas (F22) |
| migration (F22) | economic endowments of areas (R11) |
| economic characteristics of cities (R12) | land rents and housing competition (R21) |
| economic adjustments (F32) | steady-state disease incidence in low-prevalence areas (C22) |
| reductions in barriers to migration (F22) | disease incidence in low-prevalence areas (I12) |
| migration (F22) | disease incidence in high-prevalence areas (I12) |