Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP6633
Authors: Gilles Duranton; Matthew A. Turner
Abstract: We estimate the effects of major roads and public transit on the growth of major cities in the US between 1980 and 2000. We find that a 10% increase in a city?s stock of roads causes about a 2% increase in its population and employment and a small decrease in its share of poor households over this 20 year period. We also find that a 10% increase in a city?s stock of large buses causes about a 0.8% population increase and a small increase in the share of poor households over this period. To estimate these effects we rely on an instrumental variables estimation which uses a 1947 plan of the interstate highway system and an 1898 map of railroads as instruments for 1980 roads.
Keywords: instrumental variables; public transport; transportation; urban growth
JEL Codes: L91; N70; R11; R49
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| infrastructure changes (H54) | composition of industrial activity (L79) |
| random allocation of road kilometers (R42) | population (J11) |
| random allocation of road kilometers (R42) | employment (J68) |
| 1947 highway plan (R42) | stock of roads (R42) |
| 1898 railroad map (Y91) | stock of roads (R42) |
| stock of roads (R42) | population (J11) |
| stock of roads (R42) | employment (J68) |
| stock of roads (R42) | share of poor households (I32) |
| stock of large buses (L92) | population (J11) |
| stock of large buses (L92) | share of poor households (I32) |