Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP6628
Authors: Matthias Doepke; Moshe Hazan; Yishay D. Maoz
Abstract: We argue that one major cause of the U.S. postwar baby boom was the increased demand for female labour during World War II. We develop a quantitative dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous fertility and female labour-force participation decisions. We use the model to assess the long-term implications of a one-time demand shock for female labour, such as the one experienced by American women during wartime mobilization. For the war generation, the shock leads to a persistent increase in female labour supply due to the accumulation of work experience. In contrast, younger women who turn adult after the war face increased labour-market competition, which impels them to exit the labour market and start having children earlier. In our calibrated model, this general-equilibrium effect generates a substantial baby boom followed by a baby bust, as well as patterns for age-specific labour-force participation and fertility rates that are consistent with U.S data.
Keywords: baby boom; female labor force participation; fertility; World War II
JEL Codes: D58; E24; J13; J20
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Increased demand for female labor during World War II (J21) | Increased female labor supply (J21) |
| Increased demand for female labor during World War II (J21) | Exit of younger women from the labor market (J26) |
| Increased competition in the labor market (J29) | Earlier family formation among younger women (J12) |
| Increased demand for female labor during World War II (J21) | Substantial baby boom (J11) |
| Substantial baby boom (J11) | Baby bust (J13) |