Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP6568
Authors: Markus Bruckner; Antonio Ciccone
Abstract: Are civil wars partly caused by low economic growth? And do democratic institutions attenuate the impact of low growth on the likelihood of civil war? Our approach to answering these questions exploits that international commodity prices have a significant effect on income growth in Sub-Saharan African countries. We show that lower income growth makes civil war more likely in non-democracies. This effect is significantly weaker in democracies. So much so, that we do not find a link between growth and civil war in countries with democratic institutions. Our results therefore point to an interaction between economic and institutional causes of civil war.
Keywords: civil war; commodity prices; growth; rainfall
JEL Codes: O0; P0; Q0
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| lower income growth (F62) | likelihood of civil war incidence (D74) |
| lower income growth (F62) | likelihood of civil war onset (D74) |
| lower income growth (F62) | likelihood of civil war incidence in nondemocracies (D74) |
| lower income growth (F62) | likelihood of civil war incidence in democracies (D74) |
| democratic institutions (P16) | impact of economic downturns on civil conflict (F51) |