Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP6528
Authors: Holger Strulik; Jacob Weisdorf
Abstract: This paper provides a unified growth theory, i.e. a model that explains the very long-run economic and demographic development path of industrialized economies, stretching from the pre-industrial era to present-day and beyond. Making strict use of Malthus? (1798) so-called preventive check hypothesis - that fertility rates vary inversely with the price of food - the current study offers a new and straightforward explanation for the demographic transition and the break with the Malthusian era. The current framework lends support to existing unified growth theories and is well in tune with historical evidence about structural transformation.
Keywords: economic growth; industrial revolution; population growth; structural change
JEL Codes: J10; J13; O11; O14
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Increases in agricultural productivity (Q11) | Decrease in the price of food (Q11) |
| Decrease in the price of food (Q11) | Increase in fertility rates (J13) |
| Increases in agricultural productivity (Q11) | Increase in fertility rates (J13) |
| Higher food prices (Q11) | Decrease in fertility rates (J13) |
| Structural transformation from agriculture to industry (O14) | Change in fertility rates (J11) |