Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP6463
Authors: Sumru G. Altug; Alpay Filiztekin; Evket Pamuk
Abstract: This paper considers the sources of long-term economic growth for Turkey over the period 1880-2005. The period in question covers the decline and eventual dissolution of the former Ottoman Empire and the emergence of the new Turkish Republic in 1923. Hence, the paper provides a unique look at the growth experience of these two different political and economic regimes. The paper examines in detail the evolution of factors that led to growth in output across broad periods, including the post WWII period and the era or globalization beginning in the 1980's. It also considers output growth in the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors separately and allows for the effects of sectoral re-allocation. The lessons from this exercise have important implications for Turkey's future economic performance, for its ability to converge to per capita income levels of developed countries, and for the viability of its current bid for European Union membership
Keywords: determinants of growth; growth accounting; sectoral reallocation
JEL Codes: E60; N15; O40; O50; O57
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| TFP growth (post-1930) (O49) | productivity enhancement (O49) |
| TFP growth in agriculture (O49) | overall increase in TFP (1930-1950) (O49) |
| non-agricultural TFP growth (O49) | overall increase in TFP (1930-1950) (O49) |
| capital accumulation (E22) | output growth (1950-1980) (O40) |
| TFP growth (O49) | contribution to output growth (post-1980) (O47) |
| low rates of saving and capital accumulation (E20) | slower transition from agriculture to higher productivity sectors (P23) |