Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP6427
Authors: Oded Galor
Abstract: Unified Growth Theory uncovers the forces that contributed to the existence of multiple growth regimes and the emergence of convergence clubs. It suggests that differential timing of take-offs from stagnation to growth segmented economies into three fundamental regimes: slow growing economies in a Malthusian regime, fast growing countries in a sustained growth regime, and economies in the transition between these regimes. In contrast to existing research that links regime switching thresholds to critical levels of income or human capital, UGT associates them with critical changes in the rates of technological progress, population growth, and human capital formation.
Keywords: convergence clubs; Malthusian epoch; sustained growth; unified growth theory
JEL Codes: O40
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Technological progress (O49) | Transition from Malthusian regime to sustained growth regime (O41) |
| Population growth (J11) | Transition from Malthusian regime to sustained growth regime (O41) |
| Human capital formation (J24) | Transition from Malthusian regime to sustained growth regime (O41) |
| Technological progress (O49) | Population dynamics (J11) |
| Technological progress (O49) | Human capital formation (J24) |
| Population growth (J11) | Human capital formation (J24) |
| Population growth (J11) | Transition to sustained economic growth (O49) |
| Technological progress (O49) | Transition to sustained economic growth (O49) |