Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP6400
Authors: Michael Lechner; Blaise Melly
Abstract: In an evaluation of a job-training program, the influence of the program on the individual earnings capacity is important, because it reflects the program effect on human capital. Estimating these effects is complicated because earnings are observed for employed individuals only, and employment is itself an outcome of the program. Point identification of these effects can only be achieved by usually implausible assumptions. Therefore, weaker and more credible assumptions are suggested that bound various average and quantile effects. For these bounds, consistent, nonparametric estimators are proposed. In a reevaluation of Germany's training programs of 1993 and 1994, we find that the programs considerably improve the long-run earnings capacity of its participants.
Keywords: bounds; causal effects; program evaluation; treatment effects
JEL Codes: C21; C31; J30; J68
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| training programs (M53) | long-run earnings capacity (D25) |
| bounding strategies (F55) | long-run earnings capacity (D25) |
| earnings capacity (J31) | effectiveness of training programs (J24) |