Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP6217
Authors: Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger; Benedikt Goderis
Abstract: This paper examines the effect of monetary policy on the exchange rate during currency crises. Using data for a number of crisis episodes between 1986 and 2004, we find strong evidence that raising the interest rate: (i) has larger adverse balance sheet effects and is therefore less effective in countries with high domestic corporate short-term debt; (ii) is more credible and therefore more effective in countries with high-quality institutions; iii) is more credible and therefore more effective in countries with high external debt; and (iv) is less effective in countries with high capital account openness. We predict that monetary policy would have had the conventional supportive effect on the exchange rate during five of the crisis episodes in our sample, while it would have had the perverse effect during seven other episodes. For four episodes, we predict a statistically insignificant effect. Our results support the idea that the effect of monetary policy depends on its impact on fundamentals, as well as its credibility, as suggested in the recent theoretical literature. They also provide an explanation for the mixed findings in the empirical literature.
Keywords: capital account openness; currency crises; external debt; institutions; monetary policy; short-term debt
JEL Codes: E52; E58
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| raising interest rates (E43) | adverse balance sheet effects (G32) |
| high domestic corporate short-term debt (G32) | less effective monetary policy (E49) |
| high-quality institutions (I23) | more credible raising of interest rates (E43) |
| higher external debt (F34) | increased credibility of monetary policy (E52) |
| high capital account openness (F32) | less effective monetary policy (E49) |
| raising interest rates (E43) | capital outflows (F32) |