Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP6200
Authors: Monika Btler; Michel Andr Marchal
Abstract: This paper analyzes a recent ballot in which two virtually identical popular initiatives, both demanding a decrease in the legal age of retirement in Switzerland, led to differences in approval rates of nearly seven percentage points. Based on this unique natural experiment, the existence of emphasis framing effects is tested for and their determinants are identified outside of the controlled settings of laboratories. Nonetheless, the analyzed setting allows for considerably more control than usually available in the field: All party, government and interest group recommendations were symmetric for both initiatives, and the simultaneous vote rules out potential variation of individual preferences and compositional changes of the electorate over time. Using community and individual level data it is shown that the difference in approval rates is largely due to the different emphases in the initiatives' titles.
Keywords: bounded rationality; direct democracy; framing effect; natural experiment; pension reform; voting
JEL Codes: D1; D72; H55
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| difference in approval rates between the two initiatives (K16) | emphasis framing effect (G41) |
| emphasis framing effect (G41) | voting behavior (D72) |
| perceived content, accessibility, and belief importance (D83) | probability of voting differently (D72) |
| stronger a priori opinions or greater ballot experience (D72) | likelihood to vote differently (D72) |