Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP6199
Authors: Laurent Gobillon; Thierry Magnac; Harris Selod
Abstract: There are large spatial disparities in unemployment durations across the 1,300 municipalities in the Paris region (Ile-de-France). In order to characterize these imbalances, we estimate a proportional hazard model stratified by municipality on an exhaustive dataset of all unemployment spells starting in the first semester of 1996. This model allows us to recover a survival function for each municipality that is purged of individual observed heterogeneity. We show that only 30% of the disparities in the survival rates relate to observed individual variables. Nearly 70% of the remaining disparities are captured by local indicators, mainly segregation indices.
Keywords: duration model; residential segregation; spatial mismatch; urban unemployment
JEL Codes: C41; J64; R23
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| location (R32) | unemployment duration (J64) |
| local factors (F29) | disparities in survival rates (I14) |
| individual characteristics (Z13) | disparities in survival rates (I14) |
| segregation indices (C43) | unemployment duration (J64) |
| job accessibility (J68) | unemployment duration (J64) |
| residential segregation (R23) | unemployment duration (J64) |