Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP6190
Authors: Henry G. Overman; Diego Puga; Matthew A. Turner
Abstract: This paper decomposes the growth in land occupied by residences in the United States to give the relative contributions of changing demographics versus increases in the land area used by individual households. Between 1976 and 1992 the amount of residential land in the United States grew 47.5% while population only grew 17.8%. At first glance, this suggests an important role for per household increases. However, the calculations in this paper show that only 24.3% of the growth in residential land area can be attributed to State level changes in land per household. 37.5% is due to overall population growth, 5.9% to the shift of population towards States with larger houses, 22.7% to an increase in the number of households over this period, and the remaining 9.5% to interactions between these changes. There are large differences across states and metropolitan areas in the relative importance of these components.
Keywords: land use; population growth
JEL Codes: O51; R14
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Changes in overall population (J11) | Increase in residential land (R21) |
| Changes in residential land per household (R21) | Increase in residential land (R21) |
| Interactions between changes in overall population and changes in residential land per household (R20) | Increase in residential land (R21) |
| Falling household sizes (D19) | Increase in residential land (R21) |
| Increase in the number of households (D19) | Increase in residential land (R21) |
| Demographic shifts and spatial changes in population distribution (J11) | Increase in residential land (R21) |