Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP6085
Authors: Amelie Constant; Martin Kahanec; Klaus F. Zimmermann
Abstract: The Orange Revolution unveiled significant political and economic tensions between ethnic Russians and Ukrainians in Ukraine. Whether this divide was caused by purely ethnic differences or by ethnically segregated reform preferences is unknown. Analysis using unique micro data collected prior to the revolution finds that voting preferences for the forces of the forthcoming Orange Revolution were strongly driven by preferences for political and economic reforms, but were also independently significantly affected by ethnicity; namely language and nationality. Russian speakers, as opposed to Ukrainian speakers, were significantly less likely to vote for the Orange Revolution, and nationality had similar effects.
Keywords: ethnicity; orange revolution; transformation; ukraine; voting preferences
JEL Codes: D72; J15
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Russian nationality (F52) | voting for pro-Orange parties (K16) |
| Russian language (A39) | voting for pro-Orange parties (K16) |
| preferences for political and economic reforms (D72) | voting for pro-Orange parties (K16) |
| ethnicity (J15) | voting for pro-Orange parties (K16) |