Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP5927
Authors: James Albrecht; Gerard J. van den Berg; Susan Vroman
Abstract: The Swedish adult education program known as the Knowledge Lift (1997--2002) was unprecedented in its size and scope, aiming to raise the skill level of large numbers of low-skill workers. This paper evaluates the potential effects of this program on aggregate labour market outcomes. This is done by calibrating an equilibrium search model with heterogeneous worker skills using pre-program data and then forecasting the program impacts. We compare the forecasts to observed aggregate labour market outcomes after termination of the program.
Keywords: calibration; job search; program evaluation; returns to education; swedish labour market; unemployment; wages
JEL Codes: C31; D83; J21; J24; J31; J64
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Knowledge Lift program (J24) | increase in proportion of medium-skill workers (J24) |
| increase in proportion of medium-skill workers (J24) | increase in number of vacancies tailored for medium-skill workers (J68) |
| Knowledge Lift program (J24) | shift in overall labor market composition (J29) |
| shift in overall labor market composition (J49) | increase in fraction of medium-skill jobs available (J24) |
| increase in proportion of medium-skill workers (J24) | increase in average wage for medium-skill workers (J31) |
| Knowledge Lift program (J24) | increase in average wage for medium-skill workers (J31) |
| increase in average wage for medium-skill workers (J31) | decrease in average wage for low-skill workers (F66) |
| Knowledge Lift program (J24) | increase in average unemployment rate for low-skill workers (F66) |
| decrease in availability of low-skill vacancies (J69) | increase in average unemployment rate for low-skill workers (F66) |