Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP5920
Authors: Michael Lechner; Conny Wunsch
Abstract: We estimate short, medium, and long-run individual labour market effects of training programs for unemployed by following program participation on a monthly basis over a ten-year period. Since analyzing the effectiveness of training over such a long period is impossible with experimental data, we use an administrative database compiled for evaluating German training programs. Based on matching estimation adapted to the various issues that arise in this particular context, we find a clear positive relation between the effectiveness of the programs and the unemployment rate over time.
Keywords: Active Labour Market Policy; Causal Effects; Longrun Effects; Matching Estimation; Panel Data; Program Evaluation
JEL Codes: J68
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Training programs (M53) | Employment effect (J23) |
| Unemployment rate (J64) | Effectiveness of training programs (J24) |
| Higher unemployment rates (J64) | Smaller negative lock-in effects (F69) |
| Higher unemployment rates (J64) | Larger positive long-run effects (F69) |